TO: Interested Parties
FR: John Murray, YG Network
DT: May 12, 2014
RE: May Battleground/Red District Tracking Surveys
The YG Network Battleground & Red District Polls were conducted online May 4-7, 2014 using Survey Sampling International and the data for each survey were weighted to approximate a target sample of midterm voters based on age, gender, educational attainment, race, and marital status.
The YG Battleground Poll was conducted among a sample of 823 likely voters across the 90 most competitive U.S. House districts, as defined by the Cook Political Report. As we work to advance our organization’s public policy agenda, the YG Network chose to survey the 90 most competitive districts because of their importance as battlegrounds in the public policy debate. After demographic weighting, party identification was weighted to be representative of the 90 selected Congressional Districts (D+2). This poll should be viewed as a representative sample of these 90 competitive Congressional districts and is not a representation of the entire United States. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The YG Red District Poll was conducted among a sample of 726 likely voters across the 90 most Republican U.S. House districts, as defined by the Cook Political Report. After demographic weighing, party identification was weighted to be representative of the 90 selected Congressional Districts (R+9). This poll should be viewed as a representative sample of these 90 selected Congressional districts and is not a representation of the entire United States. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Click to view the Data Powerpoint HERE.
Click to view the Toplines HERE.
Click to view the Red District Toplines HERE.
BOTTOM LINE:
- Neither Battleground nor Red District constituents are optimistic about the direction of the economy. 38% of constituents from both geographies are worried about job loss in the next 12 months. And, an overwhelming majority in both geographies believe the economy is either declining or stagnant.
- By double digits, a plurality of Battleground constituents believe Republicans (42%) will do a better job creating an environment for businesses to grow and add jobs than Democrats (31%).
- Democrats refusing to move forward with building the Keystone XL pipeline is clearly a result of special interest pressure. A majority of Battleground constituents support the building of the Keystone-XL pipeline – even a plurality (47%) of Battleground Democrats support building the pipeline.
KEY DATA
By a large margin, the economy continues to be the most important issue to Battleground constituents— 35% of Battleground constituents say the economy/jobs is the most important issue to them. Healthcare (18%) and retirement security (17%) are the next most commonly cited issues.
- A large number of younger Battleground constituents (44%) and Hispanic Battleground constituents (45%) cite the economy/jobs as their top issue;
- Men are more concerned with the economy and jobs (39%) than women (30%), while women are more concerned with retirement security (21%) than men (13%);
- Almost twice as many older Battleground women are concerned with retirement security (30%) than men (16%).
Nearly 40% of constituents in both geographies are worried about the prospect of job loss in the next 12 months— 38% of both Battleground and Red District constituents are concerned about themselves or someone in their house losing their job in the next 12 months. In the Battleground districts, Democratic constituencies have a higher fear of job loss:
- 42% of single women are concerned, including 29% who say they are extremely concerned about the prospect of job loss;
- 44% of Hispanic Battleground constituents are concerned about the prospect of job loss;
- 43% of IND constituents indicate they are worried about job loss in their Household.
By double digits, a plurality of Battleground constituents believe Republicans will do a better job creating an environment for businesses to grow and add jobs— 42% of Battleground constituents say they believe Republicans will do a better job, while 31% believe Democrats will do a better job. Among those worried about job loss the gap is even wider. 46% of those concerned with job loss trust Republicans more on job growth while just 29% say they trust Democrats more.
While 82% of Republican Battleground constituents believe their party will do a better job, just 59% of Democratic Battleground constituents believe their party will do a better job. This 23-point difference suggests a lack of confidence among Democratic Battleground constituents in their party’s ability to solve the self-identified most important challenge in these districts.
Battleground constituents don’t believe the economy is improving— Just 31% believe the U.S. economy is improving, while 65% believe the economy is declining (37%) or stagnant (28%). Women are more pessimistic than men, as 67% indicate they believe the economy is declining or stagnant, while 62% of men say the same.
By more than a 2-1 margin, Battleground constituents do not believe the President when he said there was no corruption behind the IRS’s targeting of conservative groups— 49% of Battleground constituents do not believe the President while just 23% believe his claim that there was not a “smidgeon of corruption” behind the targeting of conservative groups. Perhaps most telling is that even a majority of Obama’s own party does not believe him – just 43% of Battleground constituents say they believe his claim.
A majority of Battleground and Red District constituents don’t believe raising the minimum wage will help the U.S. economy— 54% of Battleground and 57% of Red District constituents believe raising the minimum wage will either hurt or make no difference to the economy.
A majority of Battleground constituents disapprove of Obama’s handling of the energy situation in America— 51% of Battleground constituents disapprove of Obama’s handling of the energy situation in the country, while 37% say they approve. Just 28% of Battleground Independents approve of Obama’s handing of the job situation, while 57% disapprove.
A majority of Battleground constituents support building the Keystone XL pipeline— 59% of Battleground constituents support building the pipeline while 23% say they are opposed. Perhaps most telling is that even 47% of Battleground Democrats support building the pipeline (29% oppose).