TO: Interested Parties
FR: John Murray, YG Network
DT: April 21, 2014
RE: March Battleground Tracking Survey
This YG Network Congressional District Poll was conducted from April 12-15, 2014, among a sample of 1,026 likely voters across the 90 most competitive U.S. House districts, as defined by The Cook Political Report. As we work to advance our organization’s public policy agenda, the YG Network chose to survey the 90 most competitive districts because of their importance as battlegrounds in the public policy debate. Interviews were completed online using Survey Sampling International, Inc., and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of midterm voters based on age, gender, educational attainment, race, and marital status. This poll should be viewed as a representative sample of these 90 competitive Congressional districts. This sample is not a representation of the entire United States. Note, the numbers do not always add up to 100% because they are rounded to the nearest percentage point. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Click to view the Toplines HERE.
Click to view the Data Powerpoint Presentation HERE.
BOTTOM LINE:
- Obama continues to be an anchor on advancing his party’s agenda, with 56% of Battleground constituents disapproving of the President’s job performance, worse than his national disapprove number.
- More than 1/3 of Battleground constituents are worried the President’s biggest accomplishment will negatively affect their employer provided health insurance coverage.
- The recent enrollment numbers has not moved Obamacare’s favorability an inch in the positive direction
- Among Battleground constituents, the needle hasn’t moved an inch on ObamaCare. Regardless of what the President and Democrats try to push:
- Battleground constituents still heavily disapprove (39-55) of the law;
- 34% of Battleground Democrats strongly approve of the law while 70% of Republicans strongly disapprove of it;
- An increasing number of Battleground constituents trust Rs (50%) more to handle healthcare;
- Just 18% say the implementation of ObamaCare has increased their confidence in the federal government addressing national problems – 55% say they are less confident as a result of the disastrous rollout.
KEY DATA:
Obama’s approval is inverted (41-56) among Battleground residents— A majority of Battleground constituents continue to disapprove of the President’s job performance – Obama’s April numbers are even with his March numbers among this group. And he is badly underperforming with key Battleground constituents critical to advancing his party’s agenda. 59% of independents and 55% of undecideds in Battleground districts disapprove of the President’s job performance. Worse for Democrats, key Democratic groups across Battleground districts are sour on the President – his approval among young (18-44) Battleground constituents is 45-50 and among Battleground Hispanics it is 46-48.
The news of 8 million ObamaCare enrollees hasn’t moved the dial an inch in the positive direction across Battleground districts— In fact, the approval of the law is worse in April than it was in March. Approval of ObamaCare in is now 39-55, down from 44-52 in March. And 38% of Battleground constituents strongly disapprove of the law, compared to 16% who say they strongly approve. Approval among Independent Battleground constituents is 34-56, with 4 times as many Independents strongly disapproving of the law (36%) as strongly approving (9%). Unfortunately for Democrats, 18-44 (41-50), Hispanics (43-52) and undecideds (38-52) all disapprove of the law. Perhaps the worst news for Democrats though lies with intensity – just 34% of Battleground Democrats strongly approve of the law, while 70% of Republicans strongly disapprove.
More than 1/3 of Battleground constituents fear ObamaCare will cause them to lose or have their health insurance coverage changed — 34% of Battleground constituents worry the President’s biggest accomplishment will negatively impact their employer provided health insurance coverage, including 40% of men, 40% of Hispanics, 36% of Independents and 35% of undecideds. Further, nearly 30% worry they will lose other workplace benefits as a result of the law.
And, an increasing number of Battleground constituents trust Republicans more than Democrats on handling healthcare— Battleground residents are divided (50-50) on who they trust more to handle healthcare. In March, they gave Democrats the edge, with 54% saying they trusted Democrats more and 46% trusting Republicans more. It seems though that the more Battleground constituents see the faults of ObamaCare, the more they shift to trusting Republicans.
The rollout of ObamaCare has weakened confidence among Battleground voters that the Government can handle national problems— 55% say the rollout has made them less confident in the government’s ability to address national problems, while just 18% say it has increased their confidence in government to address national problems.
Nearly 4 in 10 Battleground constituents believe leaving 31 million uninsured means the law is a failure— 39% of Battleground constituents believe that, in light of the CBO projections that there will still be 31 million uninsured Americans in 2024, the law is a failure. Just 8% think that means it will be a success. Further, based on these numbers, just 15% of Democrats believe the law is a success.
ObamaCare continues to be an anchor on Democrats— 44% of Battleground voters say they are less likely to support their member of Congress if they voted for the law. Just 24% say they are more likely to support their member, if the member voted for the law. Among undecideds, 39% say they are less likely to support the member, while just 16% say they are more likely to support the member.