TO: Interested Parties
FR: John Murray, YG Network
DT: April 28, 2014
RE: April Battleground Tracking Survey
This YG Network Congressional District Poll was conducted from April 12-15, 2014, among a sample of 1,026 likely voters across the 90 most competitive U.S. House districts, as defined by The Cook Political Report. As we work to advance our organization’s public policy agenda, the YG Network chose to survey the 90 most competitive districts because of their importance as battlegrounds in the public policy debate. Interviews were completed online using Survey Sampling International, Inc., and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of midterm voters based on age, gender, educational attainment, race, and marital status. This poll should be viewed as a representative sample of these 90 competitive Congressional districts. This sample is not a representation of the entire United States. Note, the numbers do not always add up to 100% because they are rounded to the nearest percentage point. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Click to view the Data Powerpoint HERE.
Click to view the Toplines HERE.
Click to view the Red District Toplines HERE.
BOTTOM LINE:
- More than 1/3 of Battleground constituents are worried about job loss in the next 12 months.
- A strong plurality of Battleground constituents believe Republicans will do a better job at creating an environment for business to grow jobs, including a plurality of Hispanic, female and younger Battleground constituents.
- 65% of Battleground constituents believe the economy is either stagnant or declining.
- 57% of Battleground constituents believe Obama and Democrats don’t seem to have any economic plan for the future. Further, more than 2/3 of Battleground constituents believe that we are not where we should be by now economically and that Obama/Democrats should have spent more time focused on getting Americans back to work instead of passing Obamacare.
KEY DATA:
A plurality of Battleground constituents cite jobs/economy as the top issue they are concerned with— 31% of Battleground constituents say their top issue is jobs/economy. Healthcare (20%) and retirement security (15%) are the next highest issues of concern. Younger Battleground constituents (38%) and Hispanic Battleground constituents (47%) indicate jobs/economy as their top concern.
Confidence in the economy is weak among Battleground constituents – more than 1/3 are worried about potential job loss— 37% of Battleground constituents say they are extremely or very concerned that they or someone in their house might be out of work over the next 12 months, suggesting that Battleground constituents continue to remain pessimistic about the economy. 45% of younger Battleground constituents are extremely/very concerned about the prospect of job loss.
And, an increasing number of Battleground constituents believe Republicans will do a better job than Democrats on creating an environment for businesses to grow and add jobs— 49% of Battleground constituents say they believe Republicans will do a better job creating an environment for businesses to grow while just 31% say Democrats would do a better job. In March, Battleground constituents gave Republicans a 10-point edge on the issue. Republicans hold the edge on the most important issue for the following groups:
- 45-43 among female Battleground constituents;
- 42-35 among younger (18-44) Battleground constituents;
- 44-33 among Hispanic Battleground constituents;
- 44-23 among Independent Battleground constituents.
A majority (53%) of Battleground constituents say they think Republicans will do a better job reducing the federal deficit — Just 24% of Battleground constituents believe Democrats would do a better job reducing the deficit. A mere 13% of Independent Battleground constituents believe Democrats will do a better job, while 50% state they believe Republicans would be better at reducing the nation’s deficit.
Only 1/3 of Battleground constituents believe the economy is improving— A plurality of Battleground voters (37%) believe the economy is declining and 65% of Battleground constituents believe the economy is either declining or staying the same. Older Battleground constituents are the most pessimistic group, with 45% saying they believe the economy is declining.
A plurality (39%) of Battleground constituents believe Republicans in Congress are more focused on job creation and growing the economy than President Obama & Democrats in Congress— Seniors believe (47-37) that Republicans are more focused on creating jobs and growing the economy. Important here is the intensity of each base – 80% of Republicans believe their party is more focused on job creation while just 68% of Democrats believe the President and Democrats in Congress are more focused on job creation.
Battleground constituents believe Obama/Democrats took their eye off the ball to focus on Obamacare instead of job creation and growing the economy— 57% of Battleground constituents agree with the assessment that working middle class families continue to struggle and Obama/Democrats don’t seem to have an economic plan for the future. And, 67% of Battleground constituents believe that even though things have improved, we are not where we should be by now and that Obama/Democrats should have spent more time focused on getting Americans back to work instead of passing Obamacare.
A strong plurality (49%) of Battleground constituents believe Government does more to hurt people trying to move up the economic ladder instead of help them— Just 12% of Battleground constituents say they think government does more to help people trying to move up the economic ladder.
A majority of Battleground constituents support Government policies that foster job growth and investment rather than increasing taxes to close the gap between the rich and the poor — Just 38% of Battleground constituents support Government policies designed to close the gap between the rich and the poor by raising taxes.